Vietcap Securities (HOSE: VCI) | Q1 2026 Update, BUY – 1Y Upside +35.0%

Brokerage Market Share Continued to Increase, Proprietary Trading Profit Declined

In Q1 2026, average daily trading value (ADTV) across HoSE, HNX, and UPCoM improved to VND 34tn, up 2.2x YoY and 18.1% QoQ, and 24.2% higher than the FY2025 full-year average.

VCI recorded Q1 2026 revenue of VND 1,406bn (+65.3% YoY), fulfilling 21.6% of its FY2026 target and 22.8% of our previous forecast. This performance was supported by buoyant brokerage activity, with revenue of VND 340bn (+120% YoY, +32.2% QoQ), and continued expansion in margin lending, generating VND 415bn (+61.3% YoY, +10.2% QoQ).

However, earnings underperformed due to (i) limited profit-taking in proprietary investments (VND 184bn, -27.3% YoY) and (ii) higher financial expenses (VND 346bn, +88.6% YoY). As a result, Q1 2026 NPAT came in at VND 341bn (+15.6% YoY, -23.1% QoQ), fulfilling only 18.5% of management’s FY2026 target and 18.8% of our previous forecast.

We maintain our FY2026 forecast for VCI, projecting total revenue of VND 6,162bn (+23.7% YoY) and NPAT of VND 1,809bn (+34.8% YoY). Our assumptions include ADTV of VND 35.5tn, a margin lending book of VND 21tn, and HoSE market share of 7.2%. While ADTV declined to VND 26tn in April 2026, we expect market trading activity to pick up toward the end of the year, supported by EM fund disbursement.

Our forecast incorporates higher funding costs (6% in FY2026 vs. 5.6% in 2025), implying financial interest expenses of VND 970bn (+21% YoY), with Q1 accounted for 27% of our full-year estimate. However, this pressure is partially offset by industry-wide increases in margin lending rates, highlighted by VCI’s hike up to 13% p.a., supporting stable-to-slightly improving NIM.

We have updated our equity base assumptions to reflect VCI’s recent capital increase from VND 8,501bn to VND 11,476bn following a bonus share issuance in March 2026.

Accordingly, we have revised our 12-month target price from VND 47,200/share to VND 35,300/share. Based on the closing price of VND 26,200/share as of May 04, 2026, this implies an upside of 35.0%. We therefore maintain our BUY recommendation on VCI.