Vietcombank (HOSE: VCB) | Q1 2026 Update, BUY – 1Y Upside +24.9%

A System-Leading Profitability With NIM Recovery  

VCB reported strong Q1 2026 results, with consolidated PBT of VND 11,803bn (+8.7% YoY, + 8.4% QoQ), fulfilling 25.5% of management’s full-year target (VND 46,221bn) and 23.3% of our previous projections (VND 50,621bn). These results reaffirm VCB position as the most profitable bank in Vietnam.

As of end-Q1 2026, total loans to customers reached VND 1,755tn, with credit growth of 4.9% YTD, higher than the system-wide credit growth of 3.2%. Meanwhile, total funding arrived at VND 2,078tn (+2.8% YTD), with customer deposits at VND 1,682tn (+0.6% YTD), trailing behind credit growth of 4.9% YTD. These pushed LDR from 84% in Q4 2025 to 85.6% as of end-Q1 2026, indicating a tightening system-wide liquidity condition.

Management continues to emphasize a conservative operating stance for 2026, prioritizing asset quality, efficiency, and long-term shareholder value over aggressive balance sheet expansion. Beyond core banking, VCB is actively strengthening its long-term growth platform through digital transformation and ecosystem expansion. 

In 2026, VCB’s plan to establish a wholly owned subsidiary at the Vietnam International Financial Centre (VIFC) signals ambitions to deepen its presence in international finance and FDI-related banking-areas. In addition, the capital raising plan - via a combination of 10% stock dividends and a 6.5% private placement to strategic investors - is targeted for completion in 2026, potentially lifting charter capital from VND 83.6tn to VND 99.7tn.

We maintain our FY2026 forecast for VCB with TOI of VND 85.1tn (+17.4% YoY) and NPAT-MI of VND 40.7tn (+15.6% YoY). As the share price has declined by 16.6% since our previous update on Feb 04, 2026 (VND 71,800/share). We upgrade our recommendation from HOLD to BUY rating on VCB, with FW2026 target price at VND 74,800/share, offering +24.9% upside from VND 59,900/share on May 4, 2026.