Quang Ngai Sugar (HOSE: QNS) | Q1 2026 Update, BUY - FW2026 Upside +43.1%

Soymilk Remained Resilient, Sugar Rebound Amid Tightening Supply

In Q1 2026, QNS delivered strong top-line growth, with revenue reaching VND 2,763bn (+21.8% YoY), supported by solid performance across both core segments. Sugar revenue rose to VND 934bn (+27.3% YoY), driven by a 64.0% YoY increase in volume to 59k tons, indicating accelerated inventory clearance during Q1 2026. Meanwhile, soy milk revenue reached VND 1,139bn (+21.5% YoY), supported by growth in both selling price and volume. 

Despite strong revenue growth, Q1 2026 PBT only grew at 2.1% YoY, reaching VND 447bn as the sugar segment PBT declined sharply to VND 110bn (-27.0% YoY) due to lower average selling prices of sugar (VND 16.4k/kg). Meanwhile, PBT of the soy milk segment grew by 8.0% YoY to VND 150bn. We noticed that SG&A expenses also increased to VND 403bn (+55.7% YoY), primarily driven by marketing and promotional activities related to the launch of new Veyo products.

Given Q1 with Tet Holiday is normally a low season for QNS, we believe actual Q1 performance is in line with our projection. As such, we maintain our FY2026 forecasts, with revenue of VND 10,734bn (+0.8% YoY) and NPAT of VND 1,906bn (-0.9% YoY). While our estimates significantly exceed the company’s conservative guidance, with revenue at VND 10,500bn and NPAT at VND 1,512bn, we believe our assumptions are well-founded, based on (i) effective cost optimization in the sugar segment, (ii) resilient soy milk margins, and (iii) strong financial income supported by a strong cash position.

Based on the above, we maintain our BUY recommendation on QNS, with a FW2026 target price of VND 66,100/share, implying a potential upside of 43.1% from the closing price of VND 46,200/share as of May 5, 2026.