PV Power (HOSE: POW) | Q1 2026 Update, BUY – 1Y Upside +16.2%

LNG Kickstarts Growth and Earnings Poised to Accelerate in Peak Season

POW delivered a strong start to FY2026 with revenue reaching VND 12,327bn (+51.2% YoY, +40.9% QoQ) and NPAT-MI of VND 1,200bn (+169.5% YoY, +147.7% QoQ), completing 24.9% of our FY2026 forecast and exceeding management’s plan. The sharp growth was primarily driven by the first full-quarter contribution from Nhon Trach 3 & 4, marking a key inflection point in POW’s generation mix, alongside stronger dispatch at Vung Ang 1 in Q1 2026 compared to a low base in Q1 2025.

Segment performance:

Gas-fired power remained the key growth engine with revenue of VND 8,526bn (+91.6% YoY) and output of 3,441 mn kWh (+58.1% YoY), with

o       Nhon Trach 3 and Nhon Trach 4 contributed VND 3,330bn and 874 mn kWh, reinforcing LNG as the core earnings pillar in 2026 in line with our thesis.

o       Nhon Trach 2 maintained strong YoY growth with revenue up 51.6% YoY and NPAT-MI nearly quadrupling, driven by lower depreciation, though margins compressed QoQ due to higher gas prices.

o       Nhon Trach 1 recorded strong volume recovery but saw weaker pricing. Ca Mau 1 & 2 continued to decline due to lower dispatch and tightening gas supply

Coal-fired Vung Ang 1 rebounded strongly QoQ on increased dispatch as hydropower output was temporarily constrained by irrigation requirements.

Hydropower remained broadly stable as hydrological conditions normalized, with Hua Na posting solid YoY growth while Dakdrinh declined due to more cautious reservoir management.

From Q2 onward, we expect the full market price (FMP) to recover from the low levels seen in Q4 2025 and Q1 2026. As hydropower output declines during the peak dry season, the system is likely to rely more on higher-cost thermal generation, particularly coal and gas, which should support a rebound in FMP.

We maintain our FY2026 forecasts, with revenue projected at VND 49,588 bn (+45.2% YoY), broadly in line with POW’s plan, while NPAT-MI is expected at VND 2,252bn (–3.8% YoY), significantly above management guidance; topline growth is primarily driven by the first full-year contribution from Nhon Trach 3 & 4.

We adjust our FW2026 target price to VND 15,450/share, reflecting adjustments for the recent share issuance. We maintain our BUY recommendation on POW, implying a potential upside of 16.2% from the closing price of VND 13,300/share as of May 4, 2026.