Nam Long Group (HOSE: NLG) | Q1 2026 Update, BUY - 1Y Upside +60.0%

Revenue Growth Driven By Land Transfer, But Earnings Remained Subdued

NLG delivered a soft Q1 2026 earnings result, but presales momentum remained encouraging. Revenue reached VND 1,279bn, broadly flat YoY, while NPAT-MI declined 37% YoY to VND 68bn, completing 16.8% and 9.5% of company guidance, respectively. The weaker earnings were mainly due to handover timing and a higher minority interest contribution, as a substantial portion of recognized revenue came from Southgate, where NLG holds a 65% economic interest. 

Operationally, presales were the key positive highlight. Q1 2026 presales reached around VND 2,073bn, while 4M2026 presales increased 36% YoY to VND 3,507bn, supported by Mizuki Park, Izumi, Southgate, Elyse Island, and the launch of Sol Garden, formerly VSIP Hai Phong. This suggests demand for NLG’s mid-end and township products remains resilient despite a higher mortgage-rate environment.

Gross margin was mixed with consolidated gross margin declined to 29.8% from 41.8% in 2025, mainly due to the low-margin transfer of educational land plots. However, underlying property sales gross margin improved to 49.5%, driven by a higher contribution from Valora Southgate handovers, which are positioned in the higher-margin low-rise segment.

On the balance sheet side, NLG’s financial position remained relatively strong in Q1 2026, supported by a sizable liquidity buffer of VND 7,358bn, including cash, cash equivalents, and bank deposits, alongside controlled leverage with total financial debt of VND 5,487bn (-0.6% YTD). This implies a net cash position of approximately VND 1,871bn. The stronger-than-expected liquidity position was primarily supported by the rights issue completed in December 2025, which generated net proceeds of around VND 2,500bn.

Q1 2026 Financial Performance

o       Presales: VND 2,073bn (+280.4% YoY, ~22% our previous FY2026 forecast)

o       Revenue: VND 1,279bn (-0.9% YoY, -24.9% QoQ, ~27.7% our previous FY2026 forecast)

o       PBT: VND 177bn (+24.3% YoY, -68.8% QoQ, ~11.3% our previous FY2026 forecast)

o       NPAT-MI: VND 68bn (-37.0% YoY, -80.4% QoQ, ~7.4% our previous FY2026 forecast)