Gemadept Corporation (HOSE: GMD) | Q1 2026 Update, HOLD - 1Y Upside +8.6%

Business Expansion, Coming To A Port-Logistics Conglomerate

GMD delivered solid Q1 2026 results with revenue reaching VND 1,452bn (+13.7% YoY) meeting 22.3% of management guidance and 21.9% of our FY forecast. NPAT-MI continued to outpace revenue expansion, arrived at VND 534bn (+32.6% YoY), completing 27.6% of our FY2026 forecast.

Port operations remained the core earnings driver with revenue reaching VND 1,283bn (+12.7% YoY), mainly supported by Nam Dinh Vu Phase 3 and new service routes added during the quarter. Despite increasing competition in Hai Phong following the launch of Lach Huyen berths 3 and 4, Nam Dinh Vu continued to preserve strong margins thanks to its integrated ecosystem and strategic location advantages.

Logistics activities remain resilient as revenue rose 21.6% YoY, supported by improving export demand and stronger ecosystem integration with Gemalink and the Cai Mep cluster.

Gemalink’s throughput expanded by 19.0% YoY, benefiting from stronger trade momentum and the new port tariff implemented started from February 2026.  Germalink’s profit contribution rose 45.6% YoY while SCS continued to provide stable earnings contribution of VND 60bn (+3.4% YoY), supported by resilient international air cargo demand and cross-border e-commerce growth.

At AGM 2026, Gemadept guided base case FY2026 revenue of VND 6,500bn and PBT of VND 2,800bn (+9.1% and +11.1% YoY, respectively), while targeting 20% CAGR for 2026–2030. The company also approved a strategic restructuring with CJ, under which GMD will regain full control of its shipping business, while CJ will take full ownership of the logistics platform. The deal is expected to generate around VND 700bn in equity surplus for GMD. In addition, GMD suspended the planned divestment of its 24% stake in Gemalink for revaluation due to strong long-term prospects of the Cai Mep–Thi Vai port cluster, and approved a 2026 cash dividend of VND 2,200/share.

We maintain our FY2026 forecast, with revenue projected at VND 6,646 bn (+11.8% YoY) and PBT at VND 2,774 bn (+10.7% YoY), alongside with management base case. While global trade uncertainty and freight rate volatility remain key risks, we believe GMD’s integrated port-logistics ecosystem, strategic deep-water port exposure and disciplined balance sheet position the company well to sustain earnings growth over the medium term.

We adjust our recommendation on GMD from BUY to HOLD with a Forward 2026 target price of VND 86,600/share, as the stock price has increased 9.7% since our initiation report published on March 9, 2026. Our revised target price implies a potential upside of 8.6% from the closing price of VND 79,700/share as of 11 May 2026.