Bao Viet Holdings (HOSE: BVH) | Q1 2026 Update, BUY – 1Y Upside +28.1%

Q1 2026 In Line, Positive Momentum Ahead On Higher Yields

BVH reported Q1 2026 GWP of VND 11,203bn (+3.7% YoY, -1.4% QoQ), fulfilling 23.7% of our FY2026 forecast. Non-life insurance continued to be the key growth driver, with GWP rising strongly to VND 3,270bn (+18.7% YoY, +14.8% QoQ), supported by improving corporate demand as well as solid growth in motor and healthcare insurance. Meanwhile, life insurance premiums declined to VND 7,667bn (-4.1% YoY, -9.2% QoQ), broadly reflecting weak industry conditions amid subdued customer sentiment, softer bancassurance momentum, and persistent competition from bank deposits, while total sector life premiums fell 2.5% YoY and 20.7% QoQ in Q1 2026.

Total insurance expenses reached VND 9,512bn (+1.2% YoY, -7.9% QoQ), while the net loss ratio improved to 83.5% from 86.9% in Q1 2025 and 91.0% in Q4 2025. Despite improving underwriting indicators, insurance gross profit declined 46.7% YoY to VND 308bn, mainly due to elevated claim expenses from maturities of legacy life insurance policies, which rose to VND 5,071bn (+22.1% YoY, -15.9% QoQ). Meanwhile, reserve expenses fell 21.5% YoY to VND 3,266bn, mainly driven by easing pressure on mathematical reserves compared with the high base recorded in the same period last year.

Financial income remained robust at VND 2,958bn (+15.4% YoY, +1.3% QoQ), supported by improving investment yields, with the trailing 12-month average deposit yield increasing to approximately 5.1% (+30bps QoQ).

As a result, NPAT-MI reached VND 799bn (+18.9% YoY, -6.9% QoQ), achieving 21.4% of our FY2026 forecast and broadly in line with expectations, given that Q1 is typically a seasonally weaker quarter.

This positive outlook is predicated on the expectation that higher market interest rates will gradually be reflected in investment yields, while favorable discount rate movements may continue to temper mathematical reserve requirements. Furthermore, we expect overall performance to be bolstered by a gradual recovery in BVH’s market share, which has shown positive signs of improvement on a quarterly basis. Consistent market share gains, coupled with optimized investment returns, are likely to strengthen the company’s competitive positioning for the remainder of FY2026.

We maintain our FY2026 forecasts, projecting GWP of VND 47,190bn (+7.0% YoY), insurance gross profit of VND 1,555bn (+25.6% YoY), financial income of VND 12,808bn (+15.2% YoY), and NPAT-MI of VND 3,742bn (+31.9% YoY).

Accordingly, we maintain our BUY rating on BVH, with a FY2026 target price of VND 87,000/share, implying 28.1% upside from the closing price of VND 67,900/share on May 14, 2026.