BIDV (HOSE: BID) | Q1 2026 Update, HOLD – 1Y Upside +8.0%

NIM Pressure Persisted Amid Rising Funding Costs

BID delivered a steady Q1 2026 with PBT of VND 8,572bn (+15.6% YoY), completing 20.6% management guidance and 21.2% of our full-year forecast. TOI reached VND 20,698bn (+15.6% YoY), primarily driven by solid loan expansion (+15.3% YoY), which supported NII growth of 12.8% YoY to VND 15,734bn.

Q1 2026 credit growth arrived at 2.4%; however, customer deposits declined 3.7% YTD, primarily driven by intensifying competition for deposits from private banks. Compared to other state-owned banks such as VCB with deposit growth of 0.6% YTD, CTG with 1.7% YTD, BID is trailing behind peers in funding mobilization. BID’s NIM was also compressed to 2.14% (-16bps YoY, flat QoQ).

Following the completion of a private placement of ~258.7mn shares in Q1 2026, raising over VND 10tn, the bank plans to continue its multi-phase capital raising plan through (i) reserve fund of up to VND 4,985bn and (ii) a stock dividend of at least 30% from retained earnings (up to VND 13,973bn) to strengthen CAR and support future credit growth.

At the 2026 AGM, BID also reaffirmed its long-term ambition to become a leading “Large - Strong - Green” bank in Southeast Asia, targeting Top 100 Asian banks in the medium term and Top 50 by 2045, with digital transformation and capital strengthening remaining key strategic pillars.

We maintain our FY2026 forecast for BID with TOI of VND 97,294bn (+6.7% YoY) and NPAT-MI of VND 31,687bn (+6.0% YoY). Accordingly, our FY2026 target price remains at VND 45,800/share, implying a 8.0% upside from the closing price of VND 42,400/share as of May 8, 2026. We therefore revised our recommendation from BUY to HOLD for BID.