Nam Long Group (HOSE: NLG) | 3Q26 Earnings First Take, BUY (Under review)

Weak 3Q26 Handovers And Presales Heighten FY26 Execution Risks And FY27 Earnings Downside

3Q26 Results: Delayed Handovers Drive a Sharp Earnings Decline. NLG reported 3Q26 revenue of VND 328 bn (-82.5% YoY, -21.1% QoQ), as property sales plunged 88% YoY to VND 227 bn amid slower project handovers. Services and leasing revenue increased to VND 100 bn but was insufficient to offset the decline. GPM narrowed to 46.1% from 57.0% in 2Q26, while selling expenses surged 282.5% QoQ to VND43bn. Consequently, NPAT-MI fell 96.7% YoY to just VND 4.8 bn.

For 9M26, revenue declined 48.7% YoY to VND 2,022 bn, primarily supported by Nam Long II Central Lake (VND 577 bn) and Southgate (VND 521 bn), while NPAT-MI fell 63.7% to VND 128 bn. Revenue and earnings achieved only 26.5% and 17.8% of management's FY26 targets, respectively, requiring VND 5,608 bn in revenue and VND 592 bn in NPAT-MI delivered in 4Q26 to meet target. This concentration of full-year earnings in a single quarter materially increases execution risk.

Presales: Sharp 3Q26 Slowdown. Presales fell 62.8% YoY and 78.5% QoQ to VND 647 bn in 3Q26, with just 100 units sold (-87.2% QoQ). Sales were concentrated in Mizuki Park (48%) and Elyse Island (27%). Although 9M26 presales increased 14.4% YoY to VND 5,726 bn, they fulfilled only 24.4% of management's VND 23,460 bn target and 44.2% of SBBS's FY26 forecast, which weakens FY27 revenue and earnings visibility.