Vinamilk (HOSE: VNM) | Initiation Report, BUY - FW2026 Upside +24.1%

Company Information

Vietnam Dairy Products JSC (VNM) is the largest dairy producer and one of the leading consumer staples companies listed on the HOSE. Established in 1976, the company evolved from a state-owned processor into a fully integrated dairy group with a diversified portfolio spanning liquid milk, powdered milk, yogurt, condensed milk, ice-cream and nutrition products.

Financial Performance

In 2025, VNM’s consolidated revenue reached VND 63,645 bn (+3.0% YoY), driven mainly by export revenue growth of 26.6% YoY to VND 7,171 bn, underpinned by stronger demand. NPAT-MI 2025 arrived at VND 9,410 bn (+0.2% YoY), mainly due to a 5.6% YoY decline in gross profit, and a 2.4% increase in SG&A expenses. Accordingly, VNM achieved 98.8% and 97.2% of its 2025 revenue and profit plan.

As of end of 2025, VNM's total assets reached VND 53,312 bn (-3.2% YoY). Cash and cash equivalents, and shorter investment reached VND 1,794 bn (-19.4% YoY), and VND 21,354 bn (-8.2% YoY),  accounted for 43.4% of total assets, underscoring strong liquidity. On the liabilities side, total liabilities remained broadly flat YoY at VND 18,829 bn. Borrowings accounted for 50.2% of total liabilities, comprising VND 9,393 bn in short-term debt (+3.1% YTD) and VND 62 bn in long-term debt (-60.2% YTD).

Investment Rationales

Our investment rationales for VNM include:

o   Leading player in Vietnam’s dairy industry, supported by strong brand recognition and extensive distribution network.

o   Vertical value chain expansion and  premiumization create headrooms for growth and margin expansion.

o   Strong financial position and a consistent cash dividend policy.

o   Potential inclusion in the FTSE Emerging Market Index supports medium- to long-term valuation

Valuation and Recommendation

We apply DCF, P/E, and EV/EBITDA multiples to evaluate VNM share value and initiate an BUY recommendation with a 2026 Target price of VND 72,100/share, representing an upside potential of 24.1% compared to the closing price of VND 58,100/share as of March 09, 2026.