VNDIRECT Securities (HOSE: VND) | Initiation Report, BUY – FW2026 Upside +22.5%

Company Information

VNDirect Securities Corporation (VND), founded in 2006 and listed on the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange (HOSE) in 2010, has emerged as one of Vietnam’s leading securities firms with a distinct strategic emphasis on digitalization and retail investor empowerment.

VND has deliberately positioned itself as a retail-centric, technology-driven financial services platform since early day. Central to VND's strategy is the digitization of the entire investment journey, from account opening and market access to research, portfolio management, and long-term wealth solutions. This digital-first approach has enabled VND to rapidly expand its retail footprint. VND is serving a million active client accounts, ranking among the largest securities firms in Vietnam by individual investor reach.

Financial Performance

From 2020 to 2024, VND posted a robust compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 25.7% in revenue and 25.5% in net profit after tax (NPAT) with 2024 revenue and NPAT reached VND 5,325bn and VND 1,718bn, respectively.

In 9M2025, VND reported revenue of VND 5,213bn (+26.7% YoY) and NPAT of VND 1,680bn (+14.5% YoY), driven by a 30.2% YoY increase in proprietary trading revenue and 28.2% YoY increase in brokerage revenue. Accordingly, by the end of 9M2025, VND had achieved 91.3% of its FY2025 NPAT target of VND 1,840bn.

Over the years, VND has also raised its charter capital significantly, from VND 2,204bn in 2020 to VND 15,200bn as of Q3 2025. Its total assets reached VND 56,061bn, placing it among the top 4 securities firms by asset size. The margin lending portfolio stood at VND 14,479bn; with a margin lending-to-equity ratio of 70.4%, below the sector average suggests that part of its capital may be allocated to lower-liquidity investments, such as unlisted bonds or structured products. However, this ratio has improved markedly from 53.1% at the end of Q2 2025 and 51.5% at end-2024.

Investment Rationales

o       Strong growth potential through its focused retail-centric strategy

o       Assets quality improved; financial foundation remains sound

o       Proactive risk management, with room to improve IT infrastructure.

o      Discounted valuation following a period of restructuring and distress.

Valuation and Recommendations

We use two valuation methods, P/B, and P/E to determine the fair value of VND. We initiate a BUY recommendation with a 12M target price of VND 23,650/share, +22.5% from the closing price of VND 19,300/share as of January 09, 2026.

We view VND as well-positioned for short-term trading strategies aligned with the recovery in the brokerage sector, given that the company has likely moved past its most challenging phase and is currently undervalued relative to peers.