Thien Long Group (HOSE: TLG) | Initiation Report, BUY - FW2026 Upside +21.9%

Company Information

Established in 1981 as a small ball-point pen factory, Thien Long Group (TLG) has grown into the biggest player in Vietnam’s school and office stationery market, holding 60% market share in writing instrument segment. The company was officially listed on the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange (HOSE) in 2010 under the ticker TLG.

Over more than four decades, TLG has expanded from writing instruments into a diversified product portfolio covering office supplies, school supplies, and art materials. TLG’s products are distributed across 34/34 provinces and cities nationwide and exported to 74 countries around the world.  

Financial Performance

For the 2020–2024 period, TLG’s revenue and net profit after tax and minority interest (NPAT-MI) expanded at CAGR of 8.8% and 17.8% respectively, supported by resilient demand across its core writing instruments segment and the increasing contribution from export markets. NPAT-MI reached VND 462 bn (+28.6% YoY) in 2024, with NPAT-MI margin increased to 12.3% from 10.4% in 2023.

For 2025, TLG’s revenue reached VND 4,174 bn (+11.1% YoY), of which domestic revenue arrived at VND 2,988 bn (+8.8% YoY) and export revenue reached VND 1,185 bn (+17.0% YoY). NPAT-MI decreased 2.2% YoY to VND 451 bn, in line with management’s target. 

As of the end of 2025, TLG’s total assets stood at VND 3,562 bn (+6.0% YTD), of which cash and short-term investments represented 25.6% of total assets, consistent with the company’s prudent liquidity stance. Total interest-bearing debt amounted to VND 445 bn, accounting for 43.1% of total liabilities and 12.5% of total assets. The debt-to-equity ratio remained low at 0.4x, reflecting limited reliance on borrowings.

Investment Rationales

We believe that TLG fundamentals remain strong, with attractive valuation and potential upside from recent announcement of a M&A transaction where Kokuyo announced to acquire 65.01% stake:

o   Favorable domestic industry fundamentals underpin stable core growth.

o   Export expansion is emerging as the key long-term growth engine.

o   Market leadership, scale, and vertical integration create durable competitive advantages.

o   Margin tailwinds from lower raw-material costs, strong balance sheet, and attractive shareholder returns.

o   A potentials upside from the strategic exit.

Valuation and Recommendation

We apply DCF and P/E multiples to evaluate TLG share value and initiate an BUY recommendation with a 2026 Target price of VND 61,600/share, representing an upside potential of 21.9% compared to the closing price of VND 52,600/share as of February 05, 2026.