Gemadept Corporation (HOSE: GMD) | Initiation Report, BUY – FW2026 Upside +19.3%

Company Information

Gemdept Corporation (GMD), formerly known as Gemadept Shipping Agency and Forwarding Company, was founded in 1990 and became a JSC in 1993. With over 30 years of delopment, GMD has now become Vietnam’s leading integrated logistics and port operators, focusing on port operation and logistics infrastructure.

GMD curently owns and operates 6 ports nationwide (including ICD, river ports, bulk cargo port and deep- port water port) with total handling capacity of about 4.3 mn TEUs and 2.5 mn tons of bulk cargo per year. Beyond port operations, Gemadept develops a nationwide logistics network offering multimodal transport, warehousing, and distribution. GMD has been listed on HoSE since 2002; following a capital increase in late 2024 and 2025 ESOP issuance, its charter capital reached VND 4,265 bn, ranking among the top three operators by equity size.

Financial Performance

GMD maintained solid growth momentum despite intensifying global trade headwinds. 2025 consolidated revenue reached VND 5,946 bn (+23.0% YoY), driven by strong throughput across its port network and resilient performance from key associates such as Gemalink and SCS. However, NPAT-MI increased 15.2% YoY to VND 1,163 bn. Net off the one-off disposal gain of VND 338 bn in 2024, NPAT-MI 2025 increased by 150.1%.

In 2025, GMD’s total assets reached VND 19,777 bn (+9.9% YoY). This growth was primarily driven by continued investment in Phase 3 of Nam Dinh Vu Port and increased capital contributions to the rubber plantation project and the strategic associate Gemalink Deep-water Port. Total debt reached 4,917 bn (+16.4% YoY), driven primarily by long-term borrowings, which rose to VND 2,081 bn (+19.3% YoY). The increase reflects an active refinancing strategy, including the full repayment of a VND 138 bn facility with Shinhan Bank, partial repayments to VietinBank and VIB, and an incremental drawdown of VND 737 bn from BIDV to support ongoing investment requirements.

During the year, GMD successfully issued 6.2 mn shares and 6.3 mn ESOP, raising its charter capital to VND 4,265 bn.

Investment Rationales

We believe GMD maintains a strategically important position within Vietnam’s maritime transportation industry and remains well suited for long-term investment, supported by its ongoing capacity expansion projects and sustained execution of key national infrastructure developments. Our key investment rationales for GMD include:

1. Vietnam’s seaport industry is witnessing a strong growth cycle, serving as a key pillar of trade expansion

o      Integrated port–logistics platform: GMD is one of Vietnam’s leading port and logistics operators, with an integrated network of deep-water ports, ICDs, depots, logistics centers, and feeder vessels across the country. The company is accelerating the completion of Nam Dinh Vu Phase 3, which will increase capacity to 2 mn TEUs and strengthen its position as the largest river port in Northern Vietnam

o      Portfolio optimization and strategic expansion: GMD plans to divest a 24% stake in Gemalink (reducing ownership to 51%) to attract global shipping partners and support the expansion of Gemalink Phases 2a–2b. Proceeds will be invested into Cai Mep Ha. The company also plans to exit its rubber plantation business in Cambodia to focus capital on core port and logistics operations and improve ROE

2. GMD‘s capacity is poised to accelerate during 2025–2028, driven by two strategic projects, Nam Dinh Vu and Gemalink

o     Nam Dinh Vu Phase 3: Commenced operations in Oct 2025, adding 800,000 TEUs (+66.7%) of capacity, with full capacity expected by 2028 to support steady growth. The port mainly serves intra-Asia routes, while Lach Huyen focuses on long-haul international services, limiting direct competition.

o      Gemalink Phase 2a: Expected completion by 2028, expanding berth length to 1,150m and adding 600,000 TEUs of annual capacity. Gemalink’s profit contribution is projected to grow at a 16.1% CAGR (2025–2030), with further upside from container handling tariff increases at Cai Mep–Thi Vai, which remain below regional benchmarks.

3. Earnings growth remains strong ahead

o      Earnings Growth Outlook: NPAT-MI 2026 is forecast to reach VND 1,934 bn (+15.3% YoY). NPAT-MI 2027 is expected to grow 19.0%, driven by the commercial launch of Gemalink Phase 2a in H2 2027. Overall, GMD’s NPAT-MI is projected to deliver a CAGR of 16.2% over 2025–2028, supported by capacity expansion, faster utilization ramp-up, and steady earnings contribution from associates, which account for about 40.8% of consolidated PBT, with Gemalink contributing an average of 30%.

o      Attractive Valuation: GMD is currently trading at 18.7x P/E, below the industry average of 23.3x. We expect its earnings growth to be solid ahead, supported by the firm’s leading position in Vietnam’s port and logistics sector which enable it to participate in the major national infrastructure projects, and potential increases in port handling tariffs. This should provide long-term investors with a sounding potential upside at the current market value

Valuation and Recommendations

We apply fours valuation methods (DCF, P/E, P/B and SOTP) to derive GMD’s intrinsic value. We initiate an BUY recommendation with a Forward 2026 target price of VND 86,600/share, implying an upside potential of +19.3% compared to the closing price of VND 72,600 on March 09, 2026.