PetroVietnam Ca Mau Fertilizer (HOSE: DCM) | Initiation Report, BUY, FW2027 Upside 26.1%

Capturing The Urea Upswing While Building Long-Term Growth Drivers

Rating: BUY - Target price 41,300 VND/share (+26.1%)

We initiate coverage of DCM with a BUY rating and a FY27E target price of VND 41,300/share, implying 26.1% upside based on closing price of VND 32,750/share as of Sep 08, 2026. Our positive view is underpinned by DCM’s leading position in Vietnam’s urea fertilizer market, supported by high utilization, a strong domestic distribution network, and expanding export presence.

Investment Rationales

• Dominant market position and structural competitive advantages. 
• Export expansion improves sales-mix flexibility. 
• VAT reform provides a recurring structural margin uplift. 
• Strong balance sheet and attractive cash returns. 

Valuation and Rating:

We see DCM’s earnings are cyclical with strong correlation to oil price. In 2026, geopolitical tensions drove oil price volatility, pushing global urea prices to a peak of USD908/ton (+114% YTD) in April. As such, we expect DCM to have a very strong FY26 performance, supported by a significant 1H26 GPM expansion before normalizing from 2H26 into FY27. We forecast NPAT-MI of VND2,736bn (+39.6% YoY) in FY26E, VND2,419bn (-11.6%) in FY27E and VND2,618bn (+8.0%) in FY28E.

We apply a combination of 4 valuation methods, including DCF, P/E, P/B and EV/EBITDA with respective weightings of 25% of each method. Our FY27E Target Price for DCM is at VND 41,300/share, implying a potential upside of 26.1% from current market price of VND 32,750 as of Sep 08, 2026. Accordingly, we initiate coverage with a BUY rating on DCM.