Hoa Phat Group (HOSE: HPG) | HPG 2025 AGM Note

THE MANAGEMENT IS CONFIDENT ON A SOLID GROWTH OUTLOOK

2025 Business guidance

o       Revenue: VND 170 trillion (+21% YoY)

o       NPAT: VND 15 trillion (+25% YoY)

o       The management team expressed its commitment to maintain an annual growth rate of 15% in the period 2025 – 2030.

Q1/2025 Results

o       Revenue: VND 37 trillion, +19.5% YoY (22.9% of our FW2025 revenue forecast).

o       NPAT: VND 3.3 trillion, +15.0% YoY (22.6% of our FW2025 PAT forecast)
In Q1/2025, HPG produced 2.7mn tons of crude steel (+25% YoY).  Sales of HRC, construction steel, and steel billet reached 2.4mn tons (+29% YoY). Despite the volatility of steel price, HPG followed a volume-driven strategy to control inventory and maintain market share. This has been a consistent approach since its founding.

Investment Plan

o       HPG plans to fully operate the first phase of the Dung Quat 2 Steel Complex and complete Blast Furnace No. 2 by Q4/2025.

o       HPG will invest VND 14 trillion in a rail steel plant and expand into axle steel and other high-grade products to serve domestic infrastructure demand and export markets. The coming high-speed railway project is expected to require over 10 million tons of steel. This would bring in a major growth opportunity for HPG.

Notes on Different Business Lines

o       In 2024, agriculture became Hoa Phat’s most profitable segment, even outperforming other listed peers. In Q1/2025 alone, it recorded VND 400 billion in pre-tax profit. Despite soaring land prices, Hoa Phat remains cautious. It only pursue real estate projects with clear returns. The segment contributes just 5–7% of revenue, and future developments will stay within this cap, depending on the overall conditions of the sector.

o       Hoa Phat is actively partnering with major firms such as VinFast, Thanh Cong, Vietnam Railways, and the National Energy Group. HPG supplies components for trains.

o       HPG is exploring potential of offshore wind and solar projects.

Dividend Policy

o       The company expect to pay 20% stock dividend in 2025 (no cash dividend) due to the uncertainties in global macro environment. HPG's management team is quite conservative and plans to reserve a good cash balance.

o       Mr. Long (HPG's chairman) assures that from 2026, Hoa Phat will pay cash dividends if no new economic uncertainties arise.

Risk:

o       While FX volatility and potential trade tariffs pose risks, the impact on Hoa Phat is limited as exports typically account for ~20% of revenue. The company actively monitors market shifts and may apply hedging actions when needed.

o       In 2024, weak domestic demand temporarily pushed export share to 31%, but Hoa Phat remains committed to keep export to below 20% revenue in the long run.

AGM documents 2025: [here]

AGM resolution 2025: [here]