SSI Securities (HOSE: SSI) | 3Q26 Earnings First Take, BUY – Upside +42.2%

Brokerage Slump Drags Earnings; Full-Year Profit Still Within Reach

3Q26 Performance: SSI reported 3Q26 revenue of VND 3,168bn (-24.2% YoY, -4.5% QoQ) and NPAT-MI of VND 1,125bn (-23.7% YoY, -8.6% QoQ), reflecting weaker market liquidity and a high 3Q25 base. Brokerage was the main drag, with revenue plunging 62.1% YoY to VND 349bn as ADTV dropped 56.4% YoY to VND 18.4tn, while gross margin narrowed to 18.6% (2Q26: 26.2%) and HOSE market share slipped to 11.09%, second behind VPS. Investment income declined a modest 5.4% YoY to VND 1,594bn, cushioned by a VND 46tn fixed-income portfolio (~80% of total investments), although investment yield of 12.0% remains below the 14.6% at end-FY25. Margin lending income rose 10.9% YoY, but the loan book declined 5.4% QoQ to VND 38.3tn on weaker demand, and rising CoF narrowed NIM by 20bps YTD to 3.1%.

FY26 Earnings Delivery: 9M26 NPAT-MI achieved 78.4% of our FY26 forecast and 77.8% of management’s target, and we therefore expect SSI to meet its full-year plan. Revenue lagged at 70% of our forecast and 61.7% of guidance as ADTV fell short of our VND 29.0tn assumption. However, sharply lower losses on FVTPL disposals cut 9M26 operating expenses by 21.2% YoY, broadly offsetting a 39.5% rise in financial expenses.

FY27 Outlook - Weaker outlook on market liquidity: Market liquidity has declined to VND 24.5tn YTD from VND 27.6tn in FY25 (-11.2%). With banking-system liquidity still constrained and deposit rates continuing to rise, we see limited scope for new inflows into the equity market, and we expect to revise our FY27 forecasts in our detailed update.

Investment Implications: Maintain BUY, Forecasts Under Review

SSI trades at 1.5x P/B, below its five-year average of 1.8x. Adjusting our previous target price for the bonus issue gives a new target price of VND 27,450, implying 42.2% upside from the 30 Oct 2026 close of VND 19,300. We maintain BUY pending our forecast update.