Bao Viet Holdings (HOSE: BVH) | 3Q26 Earnings First Take, BUY – Upside +36.4%

Investment Income Sustains Earnings Growth While Life Claims Weigh On Underwriting

3Q26 Performance: BVH reported 3Q26 PBT of VND 1,010bn (+6.1% YoY, -21.3% QoQ) and NPAT-MI of VND 824bn (+8.6% YoY, -20.2% QoQ). The QoQ drop reflects a VND 2,377bn reserve release in 2Q26; excluding releases, NPAT-MI swung from a VND 869bn loss in 2Q26 to a VND 449bn profit in 3Q26. Net financial profit rose 21.0% YoY to VND 3,515bn, while insurance operations posted a VND 512bn gross loss (3Q25: +VND 245bn) as net claims jumped 25.6% YoY to VND 6,467bn. The net loss ratio rose to 95.9% from 85.2% in 3Q25 but eased from 99.1% in 2Q26.

Premiums: 3Q26 GWP rose 1.0% YoY to VND 10,798bn. Life premiums of VND 7,577bn (+0.5% YoY) outperformed the industry (-4.0% YoY), lifting BVH's 9M26 life market share to 23.3% from 22.9% in 9M25. Non-life premiums grew 6.2% YoY to VND 3,089bn, trailing c.21% industry growth (IAV estimates), with 9M26 market share edging down to 12.5% from 12.8%, while the non-life claims-to-premium ratio rose to 49.2% from 43.4% in 3Q25. With 9M26 GWP at 71.0% of our FY26 forecast, 4Q26 relies on new products, yet the cut in agent incentives (VND 88bn vs. VND 330bn) may weigh on new business.

FY26 Earnings Delivery: 9M26 NPAT-MI fulfilled 71.0% of our FY26 forecast of VND 3,742bn. While net financial profit is on track (75.8% of forecast), 4Q is seasonally heavy for claim payouts and the guaranteed-return reserve, down 17.2% YTD to VND 13.7tn, leaves less room for further releases, implying some downside risk to our forecast.

Investment Implications: Maintain BUY; TP Under Review

BVH has corrected 18.2% from its six-month high of VND 78,000 in early October 2026 to VND 63,800 as of 4 Nov 26 and now trades at 12.7x FY26E P/E and 1.7x FY26E P/B. With earnings still growing on the back of investment income and BVH retaining its leadership in life insurance with a rising market share, we maintain BUY with a TP of VND 87,000 (+36.4%). We will reassess our FY26–27 life insurance claims assumptions and interest income forecasts, in light of potential deposit rates decline followed SBV direction.