Quang Ngai Sugar JSC (HOSE: QNS) | 3Q26 Update, BUY – Upside +26.1%

Soymilk Underpins Earnings; Sugar Price Recovery Could Drive FY27 Upside

QNS 3Q26 Performance

QNS reported solid 3Q26 results, with revenue increasing to VND 3,073bn (+14.5% YoY) and NPAT reaching VND 450bn (+18.1% YoY). For 9M26, revenue and NPAT amounted to VND 9,125bn (+15.9% YoY) and VND 1,408bn (+2.2% YoY), fulfilling 85.6%/73.8% of our FY26 forecasts, respectively, tracked ahead of our expectations.

Revenue growth was primarily driven by strong soymilk performance, which more than offset weaker sugar sales. Soymilk revenue increased 23.9% YoY to VND 1,634bn, supported by 12% YoY growth in sales volume and an 11% increase in ASP, reflecting premiumization and the contribution of four new products launched YTD in the mid- to high-end segments. Meanwhile, sugar revenue declined 8.0% YoY to VND 871bn, as a 15.2% YoY decrease in ASP outweighed modest 3.3% volume growth.

Earnings growth outpaced revenue growth, supported by improved soymilk profitability and higher net financial income. Consolidated GPM expanded to 35.4% (+2.9ppts YoY), with soymilk GPM increasing to 48.3% (+3.5ppts YoY). Net financial income surged to VND 98bn (+89.6% YoY), partly offsetting a 35.4% increase in SG&A expenses to VND 671bn (~21.8% of revenue), as QNS continued investing in new product launches and market support.

Target Price and Rating

We raised our FY26–27E earnings forecasts, with sugar margin recovery driving stronger FY27 growth. We revised FY26E revenue up 10.9% to VND11,823bn (+11.8% YoY) and NPAT-MI up 4.4% to VND1,991bn (+3.5% YoY), reflecting stronger sugar sales and soymilk performance. For FY27E, we raise revenue by 17.0% to VND12,862bn (+8.8% YoY) and NPAT-MI by 18.3% to VND2,380bn (+19.5% YoY), mainly driven by higher sugar ASPs and improving margins.

Our revised FY27E target price is VND 63,600/share, only 1.1% higher than our previous target price of VND 62,900/share. Therefore, we maintain our previous target price of VND 62,900/share, implying 26.1% upside from the closing price of VND 49,900/share on 28 October 2026. The VND 4,000/share dividend implies an 7.6% yield, while the stock trades at 9.2x FY26E and 7.9x FY27E P/E, below its peers average of ~15.0x. Therefore, we maintain our BUY rating.