Vinh Hoan Corporation (HOSE: VHC) | 3Q26 Earnings First Take, BUY – Upside +36.2%

Earnings Below Expectations Amid Weaker US Demand And Higher Financial Costs

3Q26 Performance: VHC reported 3Q26 revenue of VND3,317bn (-4.4% YoY, -3.7% QoQ), with pangasius sales declining 2.4% YoY to VND1,719bn, partly offset by by-product growth of 7.3% to VND622bn. GPM contracted 2.4ppts YoY and 6.1ppts QoQ to 14.5%, reflecting higher raw fish (+11.2% YoY) and fingerling prices (+7.6% YoY). NPAT-MI fell 50.8% YoY to VND213bn, further pressured by a swing in net financial income from a VND94bn gain to a VND47bn loss. For 9M26, revenue increased 3.8% YoY to VND9,665bn, supported by pangasius (+5.6%) and by-products (+12.0%). GPM remained stable at 16.7%, as higher ASPs in 1H26 offset input cost inflation. However, NPAT-MI declined 16.3% YoY to VND954bn, reflecting a 92.4% drop in net financial income to VND18bn.

FY26 Forecast Delivery: 9M26 revenue and NPAT-MI fulfilled only 69.6% and 63.1% of SBBS's FY26 forecasts, respectively, versus 69.0% and 59.7% of management's targets. We see downside risk to FY26 earnings estimates and expect to reassess our forecasts following further review of 4Q orders, selling prices and raw material costs.

FY27 Outlook: Global whitefish shortages, with Alaska pollock catches down 31.8% YoY and Barents Sea cod quotas cut 16%, should support pangasius demand. Vietnam's 3Q26 pangasius exports to Europe rose 18% YoY in value, with FOB prices up 7% to US$2.80/kg. In the US, VHC's 0% anti-dumping duty provides an advantage over competitors facing rates of up to US$1.00/kg. However, the 12.5% Section 301 tariff could weaken price competitiveness and constrain US sales recovery, limiting FY27 earnings upside.

Investment Implications: Attractive Dividend Yield And Strategic Upside

VHC's integrated operations and competitive US anti-dumping duty position remain longer-term advantages. The proposed FY26 cash dividend of VND3,000/share implies a 5.6% yield, providing some valuation support. However, weak 3Q26 margins, rising financing costs and US tariff uncertainty limit near-term earnings visibility. We maintain a cautious view pending evidence of margin recovery, improved US orders, and stabilization in raw fish prices.