PVTrans (HOSE: PVT) | 3Q26 Earnings First Take, BUY – Upside +23.3%

Tanker Strength Drives 9M26 Beat; FY27 Hinges On Charter Renewals As Rates Normalize

3Q26 Performance: Revenue rose 27% YoY to VND5,610bn (-1.8% QoQ), while NPAT-MI increased 42% YoY to VND375bn. Gross profit grew 36% YoY to VND794bn (GPM 14.1%, +0.9ppt YoY, -2.6ppt QoQ), with transportation contributing VND728bn (+38% YoY; 92% of the total). Despite sharply higher market rates (average 3Q26 Aframax, MR and Handymax crude, oil product and chemical tanker rates rose 93%, 52% and 44% YoY, respectively), transportation GPM slipped to 20.7% (-0.4ppt YoY, -7.8ppt QoQ). The QoQ margin contraction, partly attributable to higher operating costs and fewer revenue-generating days due to vessel maintenance and dry-docking, weighed on transportation profitability and contributed to the 32.2% QoQ decline in NPAT-MI.

FY26 Forecast Delivery: Despite a slow 3Q26, PVT already reached 94% of its FY26 revenue target, and 32% above the full-year NPAT target. Compared to our forecast, revenue and NPAT-MI reached 89.5% and 96.4%. Tankers, which generate 80% of transportation gross profit, should keep driving 4Q26 earnings, while the recent easing in dry-bulk rates has limited impact given the segment's 14% share of transportation gross profit. We will upgrade our FY26E in our full quarterly update.

FY27 Outlook: Fleet growth and charter renewals to partly offset rate normalization. YTD, PVT added two LPG carriers and the 61,456-DWT Ultramax PVT Opal, lifting its fleet to 68 vessels (c.2.1mn DWT), and targets 100 vessels by 2030. However, management estimates tanker rates could fall c.30% in FY27 if shipping through the Strait of Hormuz normalizes, which fleet growth alone may not offset. Recent charter renewals have reportedly secured rates 30% above previous contracts, with tenors of 6–12 months, helping cushion the impact of rate normalization and improve near-term earnings visibility. Nevertheless, continued fleet expansion will increase depreciation and interest, making investment returns and vessel utilization increasingly important to earnings growth.

Investment Implications: FY26 earnings upgrade potential; FY27 growth remains more moderate

PVT's share price fell to its daily trading floor on 29 Oct 2026 following the release of earnings. We view the sell-off as an overreaction to the results, with market sentiment appearing to overshadow the company's solid earnings fundamentals. Given strong 9M26 earnings delivery and resilient tanker charter rates in 4Q26, we expect FY26 earnings to remain robust and exceed management's full-year target. However, we anticipate slower earnings growth in FY27 as freight rates gradually normalize from elevated levels and will revisit our FY27 forecasts in full quarterly update.