The PAN Group (HOSE: PAN) | 3Q26 Earnings First Take, HOLD – Upside +61.1%

Shrimp Operations Support Earnings, But Growth Catalysts Remain Limited

3Q26 Performance: PAN reported 3Q26 revenue of VND4,058bn (-21.0% YoY) due to BBC's deconsolidation following its divestment. take of BBC effect, 3Q26 revenue estimated to decline 12.4% YoY while NPAT-MI arrived at VND196bn (+25.3% YoY). For 9M26, revenue declined 13.9% YoY to VND11,438bn, while NPAT-MI, excluding the one-off VND561.5bn divestment gain of BBC, reached VND456bn (+13.3% YoY), indicating resilient underlying performance.

By entities: NSC recorded 3Q26 revenue of VND483bn (-1.9% YoY) and NPAT of VND15bn (-47.3% YoY), with 9M26 PBT achieving only 37% of our FY26E. VFG's revenue and NPAT declined 28.9% and 36.0% YoY to VND505bn and VND42bn, respectively, although it remains broadly on track to meet our FY26E NPAT forecast. FMC posted revenue of VND2,534bn (-15.1% YoY) but NPAT surged 78.3% to VND200bn, supported by improved self-farming yields; 9M26 NPAT exceeded our FY26E forecast by 5.8%. Meanwhile, ABT's revenue rose 18.2% to VND228bn, with NPAT of VND44bn, while LAF's revenue increased 50.3% to VND191bn and 584 Nha Trang's declined 6.6% to VND83bn.

FY26-27 Outlook: 9M26 revenue and NPAT-MI reached 66.4% and 79.6% of our FY26E forecasts, respectively. Earnings were primarily driven by FMC's shrimp operations, while agricultural segments lagged behind expectations. FY27 growth will likely depend on higher self-farming output and improved shrimp farming efficiency, while a recovery in agricultural demand and export markets will be key to broader growth. We will reassess our FY26–27 forecasts accordingly.

Investment Implications: Low Valuation; TP Under Review

We lower our target price from VND35,000 to VND26,900/share, primarily reflecting dilution from PAN’s additional share issuance and the VND3,000/share cash dividend in 3Q26. Following a 32.5% share price decline to VND16,700 as of 3 November 2026, PAN trades at just 5.8x FY26E P/E (excluding one-off gains), suggesting an attractive valuation. We are reassessing our earnings forecasts and target price in the upcoming full update.