Gemadept (HOSE: GMD) | 3Q26 Earnings First Take, ADD – Upside +15.5%

Logistics Consolidation Drives Revenue Growth, but Margin Pressure Weighs on Earnings Outlook

3Q26 Performance: GMD reported 3Q26 revenue of VND2,210bn (+41.6% YoY, +25.4% QoQ), driven by the first full-quarter consolidation of Gemadept Shipping Holding and Mekong Logistics, lifting logistics revenue 338% YoY to VND820bn. GPM contracted sharply to 31.8% (-10.9ppts YoY, -17.6ppts QoQ), driven by the consolidation of lower-margin logistics and shipping entities (GPM: 31.77%, -10.93ppts YoY), and weaker port profitability (GPM: 29.0%, -17.46ppts YoY).Profit from associates increased 17.2% YoY to VND348bn, including VND324bn from Gemalink, supported by strong terminal utilization. Together with lower rubber plantation provisions, this helped 3Q26 NPAT-MI rise 40.8% YoY to VND444bn, despite pressure on core operating margins.

For 9M26 GMD achieved strong revenue of VND 5,424 bn (+25.2%YoY) and NPAT-MI of VND  2,102bn (+80.7% YoY). Excluded a one-off divestment gain of VND624bn in 2Q26, core NPAT-MI still grew 36.2% YoY. In addition, GMD maintained ~VND5.3–5.4tn in cash and short-term investments, with net cash of around VND2.8tn, providing flexibility for port expansion of Nam Dinh Vu Phase 3 and advancing Gemalink Phases 2A/2B.

FY26 Earnings on Track; FY27 Forecasts Under Review. In 9M26, GMD achieved 81.6% of our FY26E revenue forecast and 82.0% of core NPAT-MI, supporting our expectation of meeting full-year estimates. However, lower GPM across segments poses downside risks to our FY27E forecasts. While management expects port margin pressure to be temporary, with a planned 15% increase in port tariffs and the completion of construction works at Gemalink Phase 2 expected to support recovery in FY27, we need to further assess the timing and extent of margin normalization.

Investment Implications: Upgrade to ADD

We revised our target price to VND56,900/share from VND 86,200/share, primarily reflecting the dilution from the share issuance on 07 October 2026. The revised target price implies 15.5% upside from the closing price of VND49,700 on 03 November 2026.

We therefore upgrade our recommendation ADD. GMD’s solid net cash position provides financial flexibility to fund expansion, while strong contributions from Gemalink underpin earnings resilience. However, margin pressure at core ports remains a key constraint on near-term upside.