Digiworld (HOSE: DGW) | 3Q26 Earnings First Take, BUY – Upside +26.1%

Record Revenue Supports FY26 Earnings, But Margin Sustainability Is Key To FY27 Outlook

3Q26 Performance: DGW reported 3Q26 revenue of VND11,022bn (+49.1% YoY, +51.6% QoQ), a record quarterly level, while NPAT-MI reached VND276bn (+64% YoY, -11% QoQ). Growth was broad-based, led by Office Equipment (+89% YoY), Mobile Phones (+44%), and Laptop & Tablets (+32%). Gross profit rose 41.6% YoY to VND922bn, while GPM declined to 8.4% (-0.4ppt YoY, -4.6ppt QoQ), reflecting the normalization of inventory-related gains from low-cost memory products in 2Q26.

FY26 Forecast Delivery: 9M26 revenue and NPAT-MI reached 79.5% and 91.4% of our FY26 forecasts, respectively, while NPAT already exceeded management's full-year target by 19%. This suggests potential upside to our FY26 estimates, supported by stronger-than-expected sales across key categories. However, we would prioritize assessing 4Q26 gross margins and financing costs before translating revenue outperformance into higher earnings forecasts, given the sharp sequential margin normalization in 3Q26.

FY27 Outlook: DGW should continue benefiting from demand for computing devices, AI-related infrastructure and new distribution categories. However, we see three factors shaping FY27 earnings: the sustainability of demand following possible purchase acceleration in 2026, gross margin normalization as favorable inventory gains fade, and rising financing costs associated with business expansion. Our FY27E GPM assumption of 9.4% implies some recovery from the 3Q26 level of 8.4%, making product mix and pricing discipline critical to forecast delivery. Additional KBC-related provisions represent a separate downside risk to reported earnings.

Investment Implications: Maintain FY26 Earnings Outlook; Monitor FY27 Margin

We see scope for an upward revision to FY26 revenue and earnings forecasts but remain cautious on FY27 profitability. execution and DGW's record sales demonstrate strong market-share opportunities, yet the sharp GPM decline and higher financing costs raise questions over the incremental profitability of growth. A sustained earning growth requires evidence of stable margins and better working capital efficiency not just temporary inventory gains. We will revisit FY27 earnings forecast and target price in our full update.