VietinBank (HOSE: CTG) | 3Q26 Earnings First Take, BUY – Upside +38.7%

Strong Core Earnings And Improving Nim Support Attractive Valuation

3Q26 Results:

3Q26 TOI grew 27.4% YoY to VND 28,654bn, driven by NII (+27.0% YoY) and non-NII (+28.4% YoY), while CIR improved to 25.1% from 26.8% in 3Q25. Notably, earnings growth came despite relatively moderate balance-sheet expansion, with loans increasing +7.5% YTD and deposits rising 8.4% YTD. Higher asset yields (+80bps YoY to 6.4%) outpaced the increase in COF (+60bps to 3.8%), supporting a wider margin spread. PBT rose to VND 13,689bn (+29.0% YoY, -7.1% QoQ), with QoQ decline was driven by a 46.8% increase in provisions, lifting LLR to 160.4% from 134.0% in 2Q26. 

9M26 Performance: Strong Profitability and Operating Efficiency.

 PBT increased 33.9% YoY to VND 39,557bn, supported by TOI growth of 25.5% and net service income growth of 42.5%. NIM expanded 20bps YoY to 2.8%, while CIR declined to 24.7%, reflecting improved revenue generation and cost efficiency. TTM ROE of 22.5% also reinforces CTG's strong profitability, particularly given its relatively moderate balance-sheet expansion. CTG 9M26 PBT also ranked second in the banking sector, behind VCB, despite leading in 3Q26.

Balance Sheet and Asset Quality: Strong Coverage.

Customer loans increased 7.5% YTD to VND 2.14tn, while deposits grew 8.4% to VND 1.94tn. NPL rose to 1.2%, with outstanding NPLs increasing 17.6% YTD to VND 25.8tn. Group 2 loans increased 33% YTD, while Group 3 loans rose sharply, suggesting emerging asset-quality pressure. Nevertheless, LLR improved to 160.4% from 134.0% in 2Q26, providing a substantial buffer against potential credit losses. 

FY26 Outlook: Earnings On Track, with Potential Upside from NIM Recovery

9M26 PBT and NPAT-MI fulfilled 78.6% and 78.5% of our FY26 forecasts, respectively. Stronger NIM, fee income and operating efficiency support full-year earnings delivery, although higher provisioning could moderate 4Q26 profit growth. 

FY27 Outlook: NIM Resilience and Credit Costs Will Determine Earnings Growth.

CTG's corporate banking franchise, improving asset yields, and strong cost efficiency provide a solid foundation for FY27 earnings. We expect earnings growth to remain positive, with NIM stability and credit-cost normalization the key drivers of upside. Additional Tier 2 capital issuance could support lending capacity, while recoveries from impaired assets offer potential earnings upside

Investment View: Attractive Valuation Supported by Strong ROE and Provision Coverage

At 1.1x TTM P/B versus the sector average of 1.3x, CTG offers an attractive relative valuation given its ~22% ROE, improving operating efficiency and 160% LLR. We remain constructive on CTG's medium-term prospects, with sustained NIM improvement, disciplined credit costs, and stronger loan growth as potential re-rating catalysts.

We maintain our BUY rating and TP of VND 41,250/share, implying 38.7% upside from the closing price on November 02, 2026. Key risks include funding-cost pressure and deterioration in early-stage overdue loans.