Vincom Retail (HOSE: VRE) | 2Q26 Update, BUY - Upside +49.0%

Earnings Growth Supported By New Malls Ramp-Up And Strong Financial Income

VRE 2Q26 Performance

VRE reported in-line 2Q26 results, with revenue rising to VND2,374bn (+10.8% YoY, +3.5% QoQ), while NPAT-MI increased 30.4% YoY to VND1,609bn. For 1H26, revenue and NPAT-MI reached VND4,667bn (+9.2% YoY) and VND3,215bn (+33.4% YoY) respectively, equivalent to 46.1%/60.5% of management's FY26 guidance and 45.7%/55.8% of our full-year forecasts.

Bottom-line growth continued to outpace top-line growth, supported by higher financial income of VND1,680bn (+29.1% YoY), lower financial expenses of VND425bn (-16.9% YoY), and tighter control of G&A expenses of VND 163bn (-28.1% YoY).

Operating metrics remained stable. Portfolio occupancy eased marginally to 88.6% (vs. 88.9% in 1Q26), while the NOI margin softened to 68.4% (vs. 70.4%) as newly opened VMMs continued their ramp-up phase. Despite this, NOI increased 7.9% YoY.

Operational momentum remained intact in 1H26. Total mall footfall reached 112 million visits (+11.6% YoY), while commercial streets attracted 14.2 million visits (+16.3% YoY), suggesting continued customer traction for the format. Tenant remix also progressed steadily, with 140 new brands introduced during the period, accounting for 31.1% of newly signed net leasable area (NLA). VRE also distributed its FY2025 cash dividend of 10% (VND 2,272bn) on 22 July 2026.

Earnings Forecast

We maintain our FY26E forecasts for revenue and NPAT-MI at VND10,222bn (+15.7% YoY) and VND5,763bn (-10.6% YoY; +16.8% YoY excluding one-off items), respectively.

For FY27E/FY28E, we forecast revenue of VND11,905bn (+16.5% YoY) and VND12,778bn (+7.3% YoY), while NPAT-MI is projected at VND6,489bn (+12.6% YoY) and VND6,909bn (+6.5% YoY), respectively.

Target Price and Rating

We adjusted our TP from VND 37,200/share to VND 36,200/share, primarily reflecting cash dividend VND 1,000 paid in July 2026 while maintain our assumptions. VRE closed at VND 24,300/share on 30 July 2026, representing a potential upside of 49.0% compared to our TP. Therefore, we maintain a BUY rating for VRE.