Vietnam International Commercial JSB (HOSE: VIB) | 2Q26 Update, ADD – Upside +14.5%

Weak Credit Growth And Higher Provisions Weigh On Earnings

2Q26 Performance

VIB reported 2Q26 NPAT of VND 1,905bn (-8.2% YoY, -15.0% QoQ), as stronger NIM was more than offset by weak credit growth and higher provisioning. 1H26 NPAT reached VND 4,147bn (+3.3% YoY), achieving 51.1% of our FY26E forecast but only 44.9% of management’s full-year target.

Credit growth remained subdued at 4.0% YTD, below the industry’s 7.41%, as retail loans declined 2.0%. VIB continued to shift toward corporate lending, which grew 17.8% YTD and now accounts for 34.2% of total loans, versus 30.2% at end-2025.

NIM recovered 17bps QoQ to 3.11% in 2Q26, but we expect the recovery to moderate as rising CoF limits further asset-yield expansion. Meanwhile, asset-quality risks are emerging, with Group 3 loans up 27.3% YTD and credit cost rising to 1.3% in 1H26. With LLR coverage at only 43.5%, we expect provisioning to remain elevated and maintain our prudent FY26E NPL forecast at 3.2%.

Earnings Forecast

We lower our FY26E NPAT forecast by 3.4% to VND 7,833bn (+7.5% YoY), reflecting weaker credit growth, higher funding costs and elevated provisioning. We cut our FY26E loan growth assumption to 11.0% from 15.3% following only 4.0% YTD growth in 1H26, while raising our credit cost assumption to 1.2% from 1.1%. We maintain a prudent FY26E NPL assumption of 3.2%. Our FY27E and FY28E NPAT forecasts stand at VND 8,942bn (+14.2% YoY) and VND 10,501bn (+17.4% YoY), respectively, implying a 15.8% FY26E–FY28E CAGR.

Target Price and Rating

We increase the risk-free rate in our valuation from 5.0% to 8.0%, reflecting the current deposit rate environment, while lowering our target P/B multiple from 1.5x to 1.2x. As a result, we revise our TP 2026 down to VND 16,950/share from VND 21,050/share, primarily reflecting lower earnings forecasts and more conservative valuation assumptions.

VIB closed at VND 14,800/share on 11 August 2026, implying 14.5% upside to our revised TP. We therefore downgrade the stock from BUY to ADD.