Vietcap Securities (HOSE: VCI) | 2Q26 Update, BUY – Upside +37.6%

Market Share Recovery, But Earnings Remain Under Pressure

VCI 2Q26 Performance

VCI reported 2Q26 NPAT of VND 251bn (-26.5% QoQ, +36.3% YoY), bringing 1H26 NPAT of VND 591bn (+23.5% YoY), fulfilling only 32.7% of our previous FY26E forecast and 32.1% of management’s full-year target. The weaker-than-expected performance was mainly driven by lower investment income, weaker brokerage activity and a 134.6% YoY increase in financial expenses.

Margin lending remained the key earnings driver. Margin lending revenue increased 79.7% YoY (+11.7% QoQ) to VND 463bn, supported by a 49.7% YoY expansion in the margin loan book to VND 10.6tn. The margin loan-to-equity ratio reached 100.0% at end-2Q26, while the margin lending rate increased to 11.3% from 10.3% in 1Q26, partly offsetting the 80bps increase in CoF to 7.3%.

Earnings Forecast

We revise down our FY26E/FY27E revenue forecasts by 13.2%/14.3% to VND 5,349bn/VND 6,374bn, and forecast NPAT of VND 1,255bn (-6.5% YoY)/VND 1,564bn (+24.6% YoY), implying a 3Y CAGR of 12.3%. Key revisions include lower ADTV assumptions of VND29.0tn/VND31.9tn and investment yields of 11.0%/13.0%, partly offset by higher margin lending rates of 11.5%/11.7%. We also raise our CoF assumptions to 7.5%/7.7% amid tighter liquidity.

We expect earnings recovery to remain uneven in 2H26, with higher funding costs, softer brokerage activity and volatile investment income likely to constrain near-term profitability. Nevertheless, continued margin lending growth should remain the key support for core earnings.

Target Price and Rating

We lower our TP 2026 to VND 30,000/share (from VND 35,300/share), reflecting our revised earnings forecasts and more conservative assumptions for market liquidity, investment income and funding costs.

VCI closed at VND 21,800/share on 14 August 2026, implying 37.6% upside to our revised target price. The stock currently trades at 1.3x FY26E P/B, below both its 5Y historical average of 2.2x and the sector average of 1.8x.

We believe VCI’s valuation does not fully reflect its ongoing market share recovery, strong foreign investor franchise and potential benefits from Vietnam’s expected FTSE Emerging Market upgrade in September 2026. While near-term earnings remain under pressure from volatile investment income and elevated funding costs, we see these catalysts as supportive of the stock’s medium-term re-rating potential. We therefore reiterate our BUY rating.