Vietcombank (HOSE: VCB) | 2Q26 Update, ADD – Upside +16.9%

Strong Earnings Growth Driven By NIM Expansion And Robust Non-Interest Income

VCB 2Q26 Performance

VCB continued to reinforce its position as Vietnam's most profitable bank in 2Q26. 1H26 TOI reached VND 47.6tn (+55.8% YoY) while PBT reached VND 29.2tn (+69.1% YoY, ~57.7% of our FY26 forecast, ~63.2% of management's FY26 target). Earnings were driven by strong growth in both NII and non-NII, alongside improved operating efficiency. NIM improved to 2.8% (+19bps YTD), supported by a continued increase in lending yields to 6.2% (+69bps YTD), which more than offset the rise in deposit costs to 3.2% (+43bps YTD).

Asset quality remained best-in-class despite a modest increase in the NPL ratio to 0.61% (+3bps QoQ). VCB's industry-leading 279% loan loss coverage ratio continues to provide substantial downside protection, reinforcing the resilience of its balance sheet. 

We remain constructive on VCB's earnings outlook for 2H26–27, supported by continued NIM expansion, resilient asset quality and a gradual recovery in fee income. Beyond earnings, we view capital strengthening as a key catalyst. Management is progressing with plans to issue more than 1 billion new shares, pursue a strategic private placement and explore international bond issuance to support future credit growth while maintaining strong capital ratios.

Earnings Forecast

We revise our FY26 earnings forecasts upward following stronger-than-expected 1H26 results, reflecting higher lending rate assumptions and a modest improvement in NIM to 2.8% despite a higher funding-cost environment. As a result, we increase our FY26 TOI and NPAT-MI forecasts to VND 93.4tn (+28.9% YoY) and VND 48.0tn (+36.5% YoY), respectively.

Target Price and Rating

Despite the earnings upgrade, we lower our TP 2026 to VND 69,800/share (from VND 74,800/share) as a higher risk-free rate of 8% increases our cost of equity and reduces the residual income valuation. Based on VCB's closing price of VND 59,700/share on 7 August 2026, our revised target price implies a 16.9% upside. We therefore downgrade our recommendation from BUY to ADD.