Thien Long Group (HOSE: TLG) | 2Q26 Update, ADD – Upside +16.6%

Price Hike Drives Growth, While Margins Soften

TLG 2Q26 Performance

TLG delivered a mixed 2Q26, with revenue growth driven by price increases and a richer product mix, while lower volumes and margin compression weighed on earnings. Revenue increased 8.7% YoY to VND1,354bn, supported by a ~12% increase in ASP and a favorable product mix, despite ~3.0% YoY volume decline.

Domestic revenue grew 2.8% YoY to VND958bn, while export revenue increased strongly by 26.1% YoY to VND396bn, supported by customer expansion and resilient demand across key Southeast Asian markets. However, the higher share of lower-margin exports (41% of revenue vs. 34% in 2Q25) and inventory clearance in the Philippines drove export GPM down 710bps YoY to 29.9%, pulling consolidated GPM down 430bps YoY on a like-for-like basis treatment of promotional expenses. As a result, NPAT-MI declined 10.5% YoY to VND199bn.

Target Price and Rating

We maintain our FY26E/FY27E revenue forecasts at VND4,606bn (+10.4% YoY) and VND5,073bn (+10.1% YoY), respectively. However, we cut our FY26E/FY27E NPAT-MI forecasts by 6.9%/5.3% to VND451bn (-0.1% YoY) and VND516bn (+14.5% YoY). The revision mainly reflects a lower FY26E GPM assumption of 49.1%, driven by higher raw-material costs and weaker export margins.

Our new TP arrived at VND 59,100/share (from VND 61,600/share), implying 16.6% upside from the closing price of VND 50,700/ share on 12 August 2026. We therefore downgrade our BUY to ADD rating.