Hoang Huy Investment Financial Services (HOSE: TCH) | 2Q26 Update, BUY - Upside +74.5%

Strong Growth, But Execution Remains Key Risks

TCH 2Q26 (1QFY26) Performance

TCH reported 1QFY26 (Apr–Jun 2026) revenue of VND451bn (+15.5% YoY) and NPAT-MI of VND125bn (+231% YoY). While this represents only 9%/8% of management’s FY26 revenue/NPAT targets, we do not view the low completion rate as indicative of full-year performance, as 1QFY26 included limited contribution from large-scale property handovers. Earnings should be increasingly back-end loaded as Hoang Huy New City II deliveries accelerate through the remainder of FY26.

Bac Song Cam adds medium-term earnings visibility

Beyond FY26, the I.14 Bac Song Cam project provides an additional growth leg. Nha Dai Loc JSC., an indirect subsidiary, secured the 3.2ha site for approximately VND1.32tn, with planned total investment of VND6.22tn. Located adjacent to Hai Phong’s new administrative center, the project comprises high-rise residential and commercial components and is expected to begin revenue recognition from 2028.We therefore see TCH’s earnings visibility depends primarily on converting its sizeable presales/customer advances into recognized revenue, while I.14 extends the development pipeline beyond the current New City cycle.

Earnings Forecast

We revise our FY26E/FY27E/FY28E revenue forecasts from VND7.5tn/9.4tn/11.7tn to VND5.3tn/9.5tn/15.4tn, respectively. The FY26E downgrade mainly reflects delayed project handovers due to slower construction progress, with FY25 handovers shifting into FY26 and weaker FY26 presales weighing on revenue recognition. We expect revenue recognition to recover from FY27E as market conditions improve. Accordingly, we cut FY26E/FY27E/FY28E NPAT-MI forecasts from VND2.2tn/3.3tn/4.4tn to VND1.3tn/2.4tn/3.4tn, mainly due to delayed handovers and higher construction costs. FY28E earnings are expected to strengthen as Thuy Nguyen begins contributing revenue.

Target Price and Rating

We incorporate the newly acquired project into our RNAV, but with a higher 8.0% risk-free rate, a 20% sector discount, and a lower 1.2x target P/B reduce our TP to VND20,200/share (from VND24,150). Based on the closing price of VND11,600/share on 19 August 2026, our target price implies 74.5% upside. We therefore maintain our BUY rating on TCH.