SSI Securities (HOSE: SSI) | 2Q26 Update, BUY – Upside +38.3%

Solid Performance With Continued Market Share Gains

SSI 2Q26 Performance

SSI reported resilient 2Q26 earnings despite weaker market activity. Brokerage revenue declined 4.4% YoY (-23.8% QoQ) to VND462bn as market ADTV fell 30.8% QoQ to VND23.7tn. Nevertheless, 1H26 NPAT-MI increased 39.0% YoY to VND2,509bn, fulfilling 53.7% of management guidance and 51.7% of our previous FY26E forecast.

The resilient performance was underpinned by continued market share gains and record margin lending. SSI's HOSE brokerage market share increased to 11.17% in 2Q26 (vs. 11.14% in 1Q26 and 10.85% a year earlier), further narrowing the gap with the market leader. Margin loans reached a record VND40.5tn, lifting the margin lending-to-equity ratio to 100% (vs. 93% in 1Q26).

Earnings Forecast

We lower our FY26E NPAT-MI forecast by 4.6% to VND4,633bn (+12.8% YoY), reflecting weaker-than-expected market liquidity and a more cautious outlook for brokerage and investment activities. We reduce our FY26E/FY27E ADTV assumptions to VND29.0tn/VND31.9tn and investment yield assumptions to 10.6%/11.5%. At the same time, we raise our margin lending rate assumptions to 11.5%/11.7% and CoF assumptions to 5.2%/5.4% to reflect the current funding environment. We forecast FY27E NPAT-MI of VND5,223bn (+12.8% YoY), implying a 3Y earnings CAGR of 14.4%.

Despite near-term pressure from elevated funding costs and softer market liquidity, we expect SSI to continue outperforming peers, supported by sustained market share gains, robust margin lending growth and its industry-leading capital position. We also expect SSI to be a key beneficiary of improving market liquidity, potential FTSE-driven inflows and continued retail investor participation.

Target Price and Rating

We revised our valuation multiples to reflect current market conditions, lowering our target P/E multiple for SSI from 20.0x to 18.0x, in line with the sector's P/E compression from 17.0x to 15.0x.

Accordingly, we lower our TP 2026 to VND 33,750/share (from VND36,150/share). SSI closed at VND 24,400/share on 5 August 2026, implying 38.3% upside to our target price.

The stock is currently trading at 1.5x FY26E P/B, below both its 5Y historical average (2.2x) and the sector average (1.8x). We believe the current valuation does not fully reflect SSI's superior franchise, resilient earnings profile and potential benefits from Vietnam's expected FTSE Emerging Market upgrade in September 2026. We therefore reiterate our BUY recommendation.