Quang Ngai Sugar JSC (HOSE: QNS) | 2Q26 Update, BUY – Upside +33.3%

Strong Soymilk Demand Supports Earnings Amid Sugar Price Weakness

QNS 2Q26 Performance

QNS reported solid 2Q26 results, with revenue increasing to VND3,289bn (+12.7% YoY, +19.0% QoQ) and NPAT reaching VND567bn (+3.8% YoY, +44.7% QoQ). For 1H26, revenue and NPAT amounted to VND6,052bn (+16.7% YoY) and VND958bn (+2.2% YoY), fulfilling 56.8%/50.2% of our FY26 forecasts, respectively.

Revenue growth was driven by continued strength across both core segments. Soymilk revenue increased 19.4% YoY to VND1,601bn, supported by 9.3% YoY growth in sales volume and a 9.2% YoY increase in ASP, benefiting from premiumization, new product launches, and stronger seasonal demand. Meanwhile, sugar revenue rose 8.0% YoY to VND1,031bn, as a 24.1% YoY increase in sales volume more than offset the 17.2% YoY decline in sugar ASP following the completion of the 2025/26 crushing season.

Despite double-digit revenue growth, earnings expanded at a slower pace as sugar profitability remained under pressure. Sugar ASP fell to VND15.6k/kg, the lowest level in nearly three years, compressing sugar GPM to 19.4% (-2.9% YoY) and causing sugar PBT to decline 43.8% YoY to VND90bn. Meanwhile, soymilk PBT increased 16.4% YoY to VND320bn, although higher selling expenses related to new product launches kept overall earnings growth moderate.

The company also continued its long-term growth strategy by increasing the investment for the An Khe Biomass Power Project to expand capacity from 95MW to 135MW.

Target Price and Rating

We maintain our FY26E forecasts, projecting revenue of VND 10,734bn (+0.8% YoY) and NPAT of VND 1,906bn (-0.9% YoY).

We updated several assumptions for DCF to reflect recent market conditions, including a higher risk-free rate, higher cost of debt, and adjusted beta. These changes reduced our DCF-derived valuation; as a result, our new target price arrivedat VND 62,900/share.

QNS closed at VND 47,200/share on 31 July 2026, implying a potential upside of 33.3%. Therefore, we maintain our BUY recommendation. The company also completed its FY25 cash dividend of VND 4,000/share, equivalent to an attractive 8.1% dividend yield for long-term, dividend-focused investors.