Nam Long Group (HOSE: NLG) | 2Q26 Update, BUY - Upside +68.7%

Slower Handover, But 2H26 Recovery Expected

NLG 2Q26 Performance

NLG delivered a soft 2Q26 as slower project handovers weighed on revenue recognition. Revenue declined 46.3% YoY to VND415bn, while NPAT-MI fell 44.4% YoY to VND55bn, highlighting the back-end-loaded nature of NLG’s FY26 earnings profile.

1H26 revenue declined 17.9% YoY to VND1.7tn. Despite a modest improvement in GPM to 36.5%, NPAT-MI fell 40.6% YoY to VND123bn and achieved just 17.2% of our FY26E forecast. Earnings were also supported by VND159bn of financial income (+72.5% YoY) on higher cash yields, implying weaker underlying property earnings. 1H26 revenue and NPAT only met 22.2%/17.1% of management guidance and 27.8% /17.2% of our previous forecast.

Earnings Forecast

Following NLG’s acquisition of an additional stake in Elyse Island from TBS, we revised ownership to 71.6%. However, we continue to classify Elyse Island as a JV rather than a subsidiary, as the entity holding the project remains a JV, consistent with its classification when NLG held a 59% stake. Therefore, we do not consolidate Elyse Island’s revenue.

We maintain our FY26E/FY27E revenue forecasts at VND6,098bn/VND6,813bn while keeping FY26E NPAT-MI at VND718bn, but raised FY27E NPAT-MI by 7.5% to VND1,708bn respectively, mainly due to higher profit from associates and JVs. 

Target Price and Rating

We raise our risk-free rate assumption to 8.0% (from 5.0%) and increase the RNAV discount to 25% (from 15%) to reflect the higher-rate environment and weaker project absorption. Consequently, we lower our 12-month TP to VND38,300/share (from VND40,800). Based on NLG’s closing price of VND22,700/share on 11 August 2026, our revised TP implies 68.7% upside. We therefore reiterate our BUY rating on NLG.