Masan Consumer (HOSE: MCH) | 2Q26 Update, HOLD – Downside -7.3%

Earnings Remain Resilient But Valuation Still Caps Upside, VN30 Inclusion Supporting Liquidity

MCH 2Q26 Performance

MCH reported solid 2Q26 results, with revenue rising to VND 7,165bn (+14.2% YoY), while NPAT-MI increased to VND 1,471bn (+10.9% YoY). For 1H26, revenue and NPAT-MI reached VND 15,637bn (+13.6% YoY) and VND 3,249bn (+11.6% YoY) respectively, equivalent to 47.4%/42.6% of of our full-year forecasts.

Top-line growth was driven by volume growth of ~10–12% across all segments. Gross profit increased to VND 3,193bn (+15.3% YoY), with GPM expanding 0.5% YoY to 44.6% despite higher raw material costs, supported by selective price increases and continued premiumization.

NPAT-MI growth lagged revenue as logistics expenses increased to VND 611bn, equivalent to 4.4% of revenue versus 3.2% in 2Q25. We expect logistics expenses to gradually normalize as freight rates ease and distribution efficiency improves.

Earnings Forecast

We maintain our FY26E forecasts for revenue and NPAT-MI at VND 32,988bn (+8.0% YoY) and VND 7,618bn (+14.3% YoY), respectively.

For FY27E/FY28E, we forecast revenue of VND 36,092bn (+9.4% YoY) and VND 39,501bn (+9.4% YoY), while NPAT-MI is projected at VND 8,457bn (+11.0% YoY) and VND 9,364bn (+10.7% YoY), respectively.

Target Price and Rating

We maintain our TP at VND 128,700/share. Our SELL recommendation has played out as expected, with MCH declining 15.8% since initiation (15 January 2026), outperforming our downside thesis. Following the correction, the implied downside to our target price has narrowed to 7.3%, leading us to upgrade the stock from SELL to HOLD.

MCH has been eligible for margin lending since 29 June 2026 and will be added to the VN30 Index from the beginning of Aug 2026. This inclusion creates a permanent, structural wave of net buying from local and foreign passive ETF funds tracking Vietnam's top 30 blue-chip entities. MCH also has an interim cash dividend of VND 2,000 per share, scheduled to pay on Aug 19, 2026.