Gemadept (HOSE: GMD) | 2Q26 Update, HOLD – Upside +11.6%

Solid Core Business Growth, Supplemented by One-off Disposal Gains

GMD 2Q26 Performance

GMD reported 2Q26 revenue of VND 1,762bn (+17.9% YoY, +21.3% QoQ), while reported NPAT-MI surged 154.6% YoY and 112.2% QoQ to VND 1,133bn. However, the sharp increase in bottom-line earnings was largely attributable to a VND 609bn one-off gain from the disposal of long-term investments, including GMD’s interests in CJ Gemadept Logistics Holding, FCC and IVAM.

Excluding this non-recurring gain, we estimate core 2Q26 NPAT-MI at approximately VND 524bn (+17.8% YoY, -1.9% QoQ), indicating that underlying earnings growth remained healthy despite being considerably more moderate than the reported figure. For 1H26, core NPAT-MI reached approximately VND 1,059bn (+24.9% YoY), completing 54.8% of our full-year core forecast and indicating that recurring earnings remained firmly on track.

Core operations maintained healthy growth. Gross profit rose 20.6% YoY to VND 871bn, outpacing revenue growth and lifting GPM to 49.4% from 48.3% in 2Q25. Port operations remained GMD’s key earnings driver, contributing approximately 86% of consolidated revenue in 1H26. Higher throughput supported operating leverage, with port gross profit growing faster than revenue and the segment’s GPM improving to 47.0%.

Operational momentum remained intact in 1H26. The addition of seven vessels expanded PVT’s fleet capacity and revenue-generating base, while stronger time-charter rates supported improved vessel economics. Other income also increased 304.8% YoY to VND 85bn, contributing to stronger earnings, although the main driver remained the core transportation business. The 1H26 gross margin improved to 15.9% from 15.3% in 1H25, while the net margin expanded to 10.8% from 9.0%.

Earnings Forecast

We maintain our FY26E revenue forecast at VND 6,646bn (+11.8% YoY). Our reported FY26E NPAT-MI forecast stands at VND 2,543bn (+51.6% YoY), including the VND 609bn disposal gain recognized in 2Q26.

Excluding this gain, we forecast core FY26E NPAT-MI of VND 1,934bn (+15.3% YoY). Core 1H26 NPAT-MI therefore completed 54.8% of our full-year normalized forecast, indicating that recurring earnings remained on track.

For FY27E/FY28E, we forecast NPAT-MI of VND 2,301bn and VND 2,612bn, respectively. The projected 9.5% YoY decline in reported FY27E NPAT-MI primarily reflects the absence of the FY26 disposal gain. Relative to core FY26E earnings, FY27E NPAT-MI would increase approximately 19.0%, providing a clearer indication of GMD’s underlying earnings trajectory.

Target Price and Rating

We lower our target price from VND 86,600/share to VND 86,200/share, primarily reflecting an increase in our risk-free rate assumption from 5.0% to 8.0%, which raises our WACC. We also update the number of outstanding shares to 432.9mn following the recent ESOP issuance.

Based on GMD’s market price of VND 77,200/share, our revised target price implies potential upside of 11.7%. While GMD trades at 13.1x reported FY26E P/E, this multiple benefits from the VND 609bn non-recurring disposal gain. Excluding the gain, GMD trades at approximately 17.3x core FY26E P/E, providing a more representative view of its recurring valuation. We maintain our HOLD rating.