Coteccons (HOSE: CTD) | 2Q26 Update, BUY – Upside +38.5%

Full-Year Results Beat Management Guidance

CTD 2Q26 Performance

CTD reported solid 4QFY26 results, with revenue and NPAT-MI reaching VND10,472bn (+25.4% YoY) and VND146bn (-21.8% YoY), respectively. GPM improved significantly to 4.45% (+187bps YoY), supported by better project execution and a more favorable project mix. For FY26, revenue reached VND34,340bn (+38.0% YoY), achieving 105% of our forecast and 114.5% of management’s guidance, while NPAT-MI rose 72.7% YoY to VND788bn, achieving 112.6% of guidance but 90.4% of our forecast. The shortfall was mainly due to higher G&A expenses of VND676bn (+104.1% YoY).

Earnings Forecast

We keep our FY27E revenue forecast broadly unchanged at VND43,175bn (+25.7% YoY), while lowering FY28E revenue to VND48,564bn (+12.5% YoY) from VND50,780bn, mainly due to an updated Can Gio Bridge revenue recognition timeline. We lower FY27E NPAT-MI to VND793bn (from VND938bn) following higher FY26 actual G&A and financial expenses. Excluding the one-off BCC liquidation gain, FY27E NPAT-MI is expected to grow 24.0% YoY. We continue to exclude any reversal of the VND526bn Ngoi Sao Viet provision given uncertainty over timing and recoverability.

Target Price and Rating

We maintain our BUY rating and roll forward our 12-month valuation to FY27, with our target price slightly reduced to VND 86,000/share (from VND 87,400/share), mainly due to lower earnings forecasts and a higher WACC of 11.7%. Based on CTD’s closing price of VND 62,100/share on 7 August 2026, our target price implies 38.5% upside. The proposed increase in CTD’s foreign ownership limit toward 100% could provide an additional re-rating catalyst by broadening institutional participation and improving liquidity.