Ban Viet Bank (HOSE: BVB) | 2Q26 Update, BUY – Upside +36.6%

BVB 2Q26 Performance

BVB reported another strong quarter in 2Q26, with TOI reaching VND 943bn (+37.8% YoY, +4.9% QoQ) and PBT increasing to VND 332bn (+25x YoY, +53.8% QoQ). Earnings were driven by stronger NII, improving NIM, lower operating expenses and declining provisioning expenses. As a result, 1H26 PBT reached VND 547bn (+5.9x YoY), fulfilling 78.2% of management's original FY26 target of VND 700bn.

Customer deposits grew 13.9% well ahead of loan growth of 7.3% YTD, enabling the bank to strengthen its liquidity position while expanding NIM to 2.7% (+25bp YTD). Although this funding outperformance supported earnings in 1H26, we expect margin expansion to slow in 2H26 as system-wide liquidity continues to tighten and competition for deposits intensifies.

The NPL ratio increased to 3.2% in 2Q26 (vs. 3.1% in 1Q26). Although the bank increased provisioning by 7.7%, this pace lagged NPL formation, causing LLR to decline from 46% to 44%. Group 2 loans increased 27.1% YTD to VND 1,038bn, signaling further NPL formation and potential provisioning pressure in 2H26.

Earnings Forecast

We revise our FY26E NPAT-MI forecast upward by 4.3% to VND 733bn (+76% YoY), mainly reflecting a higher FY26E NIM assumption of 2.5% (from 2.4%). We lower our FY26E loan and deposit growth forecasts to 15.0% and 18.0%, respectively, reflecting a more cautious funding and credit outlook. We maintain our FY26E NPL forecast at 3.3%. FY27 NPAT-MI is also revised up 0.6% to VND 1,009bn (+37.6% YoY).

We also increased the risk-free rate in our valuation from 5.0% to 8.0%, reflecting the current interest-rate environment, and lowered our target P/B multiple from 1.4x to 1.3x.

Target Price and Rating

We revised down our TP 2026 from VND 17,200/share to VND 16,800/share. BVB closed at VND 12,300/share on 31 July 2026, implying a potential upside of 36.6% to our revised TP. We therefore maintain our BUY rating for the stock.