Vinh Hoan Corporation (HOSE: VHC) | 2Q26 Update, BUY – Upside +28.0%

Premium Export Mix Supports Growth, While Weaker Financial Income Weighs On Earnings

VHC 2Q26 Performance

VHC reported  2Q26 revenue of VND 3,444bn (+7.9% YoY, +16.6% QoQ), while NPAT-MI declined 8.9% YoY to VND 469bn due to weaker financial income. For 1H26, revenue and NPAT-MI reached VND 6,399bn (+9.6% YoY) and VND 735bn (+3.9% YoY), fulfilling 46.1% and 48.6% of our FY26 forecasts, respectively.

We remain constructive on VHC's outlook for 2H26. Structural shortages of whitefish continue to support pangasius substitution in Europe, while seasonal inventory restocking ahead of the year-end holiday season in both the U.S. and Europe should support export demand. In addition, VHC's USD 0/kg POR21 anti-dumping rate continues to provide a meaningful competitive advantage in the U.S. market despite the recent increase to 12.5% in U.S. Section 301 tariffs, reinforcing the company's pricing power and long-term earnings resilience.

Target Price and Rating

We maintain our FY26E forecasts, projecting revenue of VND 13,892bn (+11.4% YoY) and NPAT-MI of VND 1,513bn (+5.8% YoY).

We updated several assumptions for DCF to reflect recent market conditions, including a higher risk-free rate, higher cost of debt, and adjusted beta. These changes reduced our DCF-derived valuation; as a result, our new target price arrivedat VND 68,500/share.

VHC closed at VND 53,500/share on 4 August 2026, implying a potential upside of 28.0%. Therefore, we maintain our BUY recommendation. VHC also proposed a 2026 cash dividend of VND 3,000/share, implying a dividend yield of 5.3% at the current share price.